What Sewage Data Reveals About COVID and Back-to-School

2 min read

Aug. 6, 2024 – It’s been called the summer COVID surge, but this latest viral wave is yet to subside and is now colliding with back-to-school season.

New CDC data published late Monday show the positive COVID test rate edged up 2 points to 16% for the week ending July 27. Emergency room visits involving a COVID diagnosis also ticked up (accounting now for 2% of all ER visits), and wastewater detections of the virus that causes COVID continue their unrelenting climb since early May.

The nation’s wastewater viral activity level is currently more than twice as high as it was this same time last year. Testing for viral traces in sewage is considered an advanced indicator of whether COVID community impacts are heading upward or downward. All but seven U.S. states currently are reporting “high” or “very high” SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels as of Aug. 1, according to the CDC’s monitoring program (SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID). New York and West Virginia levels remained “low,” while moderate levels were observed in New Jersey, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Arizona. There was no data reported for North Dakota.

COVID-19 deaths jumped by 25% during the latest week of reporting, although the overall rate of deaths that week due to COVID was 1.5% when all other causes of death are considered. The total number of weekly COVID deaths has remained less than 500 nationally since mid-April.

The current dominant variants are still Omicron descendants, called KP.3 and KP.3.1.1, the latter of which recently unseated KP.3 for the top prevalence spot. The CDC estimates that for the week ending Aug. 3, KP.3.1.1 accounted for nearly 28% of U.S. infections, up from 14% 2 weeks prior. The variant KP.3 slipped to the second position, now accounting for about 20% of infections, down from about 24% during the prior 2-week reporting period.

COVID expert Eric Topol, MD, tweeted recently that KP.3.1.1 is moving toward being “more of a challenge to our immune response than KP.3 and prior variants.”

Updated COVID vaccines are expected to become available later this month or in September.