June 4, 2024 – By 2050, more than 6 in 10 U.S. adults will have heart disease, according to a new projection by the American Heart Association.
The report, published this week in the journal Circulation, is a prediction that Americans are unlikely to make major health and lifestyle changes during the next 3 decades to reduce their risk of health problems like heart attacks, strokes, heart disease, heart failure, irregular heart rhythm, or problems with their blood vessels. The figures also position heart disease and stroke to remain among the top causes of death in the U.S.
“The findings of these important advisories predict a dire human and economic toll from heart disease and stroke if changes are not made,” American Heart Association Chief Executive Officer Nancy Brown said in a statement. “However, this does not have to be the reality of our future.”
The Heart Association suggests eight lifestyle and health areas people can focus on to reduce their risk of cardiovascular disease:
- Getting 7 to 9 hours of sleep each night
- Following a Mediterranean or DASH diet
- Getting at least 150 minutes of moderate physical activity per week
- Managing blood sugar and diabetes risk
- Maintaining a healthy weight with a body mass index of less than 25
- Keeping non-HDL cholesterol levels below 130 mg/dL
- Keeping blood pressure below 120/80 mmHg
- Not smoking or vaping
The Heart Association report predicts that twice as many people will have strokes in 2050, compared to just 10 million in 2020. High blood pressure will affect 61% of adults, and diabetes rates will rise from 16% to 27%. Obesity will affect 61% of people in 2050, up from 43% in 2020.
The report authors noted some positive expected changes in heart-healthy behavior, including that more people will get enough physical activity over the next 30 years. But in 2050, 1 in 4 people will still not have a healthy activity level. Cigarette smoking is predicted to decline, but 8% of people will likely still smoke. Dietary changes are not widely expected, and an estimated 150 million people in the U.S. will eat what the association considers a poor diet.
Along with an aging population, the researchers said systemic racism and access to health care would be drivers of the predicted rise in cardiovascular disease, or CVD.
“We found larger increases in the prevalence of CVD and risk factors, and in the number of people with these conditions, among people from racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds,” Karen Joynt Maddox, MD, MPH, an associate professor of medicine at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, said in a statement. "Some of this is due to demographic shifts in the U.S., with projections suggesting that Asian and Hispanic populations will nearly double by 2060. However, much of the inequity we see in CVD and risk factors remains attributed to systemic racism, as well as socioeconomic factors and access to care.”
With the increased prevalence of cardiovascular health problems and rising health care costs, a separate analysis also published in Circulation predicted that the cost of providing care for people with CVD will reach nearly $1.5 trillion, plus an additional economic impact of $361 billion in loss of productivity annually.
